Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 April 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 96 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very lowon days one, two, and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr, 09 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 05/2242Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13361 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Apr) and quiet t unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Apr, 09 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 074
Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 06 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 010/012-009/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/25/30