Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 September 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 05/1959Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2244Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/1007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3973 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 069
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20