- Press Release
- Dec 4, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 September 2016
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently one numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 748 km/s at 04/2346Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1847Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1628Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 56842 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 094
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 020/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 011/012-010/010-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/10/10