Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1954Z from Region 1836 (N13W56). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Sep,
07 Sep, 08 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at
04/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1156 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Sep, 07 Sep, 08
Sep).

III. Event probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 110
Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 05 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10