- Press Release
- Oct 4, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 October 2021
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (06 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 04/2203Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1830Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/1324Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 248 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Oct, 08 Oct) and quiet levels on day two (07 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 082
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 007/008-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/20/30
Major-severe storm 25/20/25