Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/1341Z from Region 2683 (N13W58). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 05/2041Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/1713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5863 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 085
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct 085/082/080
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  005/ 009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  005/005-008/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           05/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/45/45