Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1656Z from Region 2177 (N13W54). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct, 08 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 498 km/s at
05/0154Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 04/2126Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 456 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Oct, 07 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 128
Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 125/120/120
90 Day Mean 05 Oct 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 008/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/20