Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 627 km/s at 05/1142Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 04/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 05/1313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1817 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 093
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 042/065
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 010/012-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/10