Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 05/2041Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/2042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/2042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2952 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Nov, 07 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (08 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 091
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 091/091/091
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 25/25/10