Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 04/2148Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 071
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 071/070/070
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  008/010-018/027-021/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/40/45
Minor Storm           05/25/35
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/45/60