Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 5, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/2253Z from Region 2448 (N06E72). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 626 km/s at 04/2101Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0859Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7904 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (07 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (08 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 110
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 031/032
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 007/008-015/025-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/40
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/60/50

SpaceRef staff editor.