Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 November 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to

05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at

05/0947Z from Region 2205 (N16E56). There are currently 8 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate

with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07

Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

597 km/s at 05/1939Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/0521Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0647Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Nov, 08

Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Nov). Protons have a

slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov,

07 Nov, 08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

Class M    55/55/55

Class X    25/25/25

Proton     10/10/10

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Nov 135

Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 135/135/130

90 Day Mean        05 Nov 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  012/018

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  013/017

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  007/008-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/35/20

Minor Storm           05/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    30/45/30