Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
05/0947Z from Region 2205 (N16E56). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07
Nov, 08 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
597 km/s at 05/1939Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/0521Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0647Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Nov, 08
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov,
07 Nov, 08 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 25/25/25
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 135
Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 05 Nov 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 007/008-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/45/30