Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/1410Z from Region 3006 (S29E50). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 05/2000Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/0008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1638Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1687 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (07 May, 08 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 25/25/25
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 120
Predicted 06 May-08 May 118/118/118
90 Day Mean 05 May 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 006/005-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/30/30