Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 04/2243Z from Region 2740 (N09E67). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 04/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1177 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 May, 07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 May).

III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 074
Predicted 06 May-08 May 076/076/076
90 Day Mean 05 May 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 010/012-012/014-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 35/35/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/25