Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 May 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 638 km/s at 05/2053Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 05/1400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 05/1429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 594 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (06 May, 07 May) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 May).

III.  Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 068
Predicted   06 May-08 May 068/069/069
90 Day Mean        05 May 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  019/024-014/020-014/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/35
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/55/40