Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 05/1454Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/1815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3840 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 May) and quiet levels on day three (08 May).

III.  Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 May 074
Predicted   06 May-08 May 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        05 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May  011/014-008/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    30/25/10