Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 May 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 04/2248Z from Region 2542 (N09E70). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 04/2128Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/0827Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4145 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 May), quiet to active levels on day two (07 May) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08 May).

III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 087
Predicted 06 May-08 May 090/085/085
90 Day Mean 05 May 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 006/003-010/004-014/004

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/35/40