Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 05/1724Z from Region 2335 (S16E11). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at 05/1227Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1657Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0852Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 130 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 May, 07 May) and quiet levels on day three (08 May).
III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 128
Predicted 06 May-08 May 135/140/145
90 Day Mean 05 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 013/015-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
