Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
05/1828Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (06 May, 07 May) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (08 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
403 km/s at 05/1354Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/0202Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/0211Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 May, 08
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 May).

III. Event probabilities 06 May-08 May
Class M 45/40/35
Class X 15/10/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 139
Predicted 06 May-08 May 140/135/135
90 Day Mean 05 May 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 015/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 007/008-010/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/25