Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 05/2022Z from Region 2962 (N26E55). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 05/1941Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/1151Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 05/1211Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 120
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 016/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 016/020-011/012-011/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 50/40/25