Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 March 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 705 km/s at 05/2052Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/0427Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29715 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Mar, 08 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Mar 073
Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        05 Mar 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  018/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10