Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 388 km/s at 05/1103Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0643Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 417 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 096
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 014/020-011/015-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/40/25