Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/1811Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Mar, 07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 561 km/s at 04/2258Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/1037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1131Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1106 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 130
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 135/135/130
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 007/008-007/008-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
