Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 March 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 64 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0754Z from Region 1686 (S14W59). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (08 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 05/0131Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 7332 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Mar, 07 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 30/30/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 118
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 118/115/120
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 006/008-006/008-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 30/30/10