Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 June2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 356 km/s at 04/2236Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/1409Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/0835Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 172 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Jun, 07 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (08 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 071
Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 05 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 007/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 15/10/10