Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speedreached a peak of 436 km/s at 04/2110Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 145 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Jun, 07 Jun) and unsettledto active levels on day three (08 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 074
Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 076/076/073
90 Day Mean 05 Jun 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 006/005-005/005-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/40