Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 05/0531Z from Region 2661 (N06E13). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (06 Jun) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 406 km/s at 04/2112Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/1302Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1255Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 355 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M    10/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jun 079
Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        05 Jun 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  005/005-006/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10