Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 June 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
June 5, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 June 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 05/1734Z from Region 2361 (N16E51). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 311 km/s at 05/0837Z. Total IMF reached 4 nT at 05/2013Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 05/0904Z.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Jun, 07 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jun).

 

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun

Class M    20/20/20

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Jun 126

Predicted   06 Jun-08 Jun 130/135/135

90 Day Mean        05 Jun 124

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun  004/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun  003/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  008/008-010/012-015/020

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                15/25/35

Minor Storm           05/05/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/15/15

Minor Storm           25/30/30

Major-severe storm    20/30/45

 

SpaceRef staff editor.