Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 05/1734Z from Region 2361 (N16E51). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jun, 07 Jun, 08 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 311 km/s at 05/0837Z. Total IMF reached 4 nT at 05/2013Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 05/0904Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Jun, 07 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 126
Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 130/135/135
90 Day Mean 05 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 008/008-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
