Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jun,
07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 366 km/s at
05/0636Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/1913Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/1913Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jun,
07 Jun, 08 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 111
Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 110/110/115
90 Day Mean 05 Jun 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 007/008-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/30/20