Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 June 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 156 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jun 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0857Z from Region 1762 (S30W60). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jun,
07 Jun, 08 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
571 km/s at 04/2108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 30461 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (06 Jun, 07 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (08 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
Class M 15/15/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jun 109
Predicted 06 Jun-08 Jun 110/115/115
90 Day Mean 05 Jun 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jun 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 005/005-006/005-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jun-08 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/45
Minor Storm 05/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/65