Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/1843Z from Region 2836 (S26W78). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 354 km/s at 05/0419Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/1611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/1611Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 325 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 089
Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 090/085/082
90 Day Mean 05 Jul 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 008/008-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20