Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 05/0737Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/2254Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/0359Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 069
Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 05 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10