Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 362 km/s at 04/2154Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 05/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 05/2046Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jul 073
Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 074/074/075
90 Day Mean        05 Jul 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  004/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/05/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/10