Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 593 km/s at 04/2151Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 05/0040Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 05/0009Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul

Class M    15/15/15

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           05 Jul 125

Predicted   06 Jul-08 Jul 125/125/125

90 Day Mean        05 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul  021/029

Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul  020/025

Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul  010/012-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/10/10

Minor Storm           15/05/05

Major-severe storm    05/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/20/20

Major-severe storm    50/20/20