Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
05/1301Z from Region 1787 (S15E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
379 km/s at 05/0354Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/2039Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/0429Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4202 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (06 Jul, 07 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (08 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 141
Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 140/135/140
90 Day Mean 05 Jul 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 010/012-010/012-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/20
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/35/30