Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 January 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (06 Jan) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speedreached a peak of 450 km/s at 05/2043Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/0416Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/1227Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1009 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 05/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 084
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 084/088/092
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20