Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 487 km/s at 05/1952Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 05/1420Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 05/1351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1174 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (08 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 075
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 015/020-007/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/15
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 60/30/20