Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 05/2018Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 05/1743Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 05/1745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 245 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Jan, 08 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (07 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 072
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 008/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/10/25