Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 January 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 04/2101Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Jan 069
Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 069/069/068
90 Day Mean        05 Jan 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  005/005-008/008-008/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/30
Minor Storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/35
Major-severe storm    10/20/40