Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at 05/1612Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 05/1630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/1317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6152 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jan), unsettled to active levels on day two (07 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (08 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 095
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 095/095/100
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 013/020-015/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor Storm 25/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 60/60/40