Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 January 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/2252Z from Region 1936 (S15W90). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07
Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 505 km/s at
05/0329Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2256Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 694 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (07 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08
Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 218
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 220/220/215
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 006/005-011/015-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/25
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 15/20/30
Major-severe storm 05/40/35