Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 January 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/0931Z from Region 1652 (N20E74). There are currently 14 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06
Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 361 km/s at
04/2209Z. Total IMF reached 5.2 nT at 05/1138Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3.5 nT at 04/2306Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet on day 1 (06 Jan). Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected on days 2-3 (07 Jan, 08 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
Class M 35/35/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 145
Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 145/140/135
90 Day Mean 05 Jan 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/005-006/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan-08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/15/15