Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 04/2157Z from Region 2936 (N17W75). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 05/1938Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/0740Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0751Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2774 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (06 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (08 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 126
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 112/120/120
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 018/036
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 014/016-011/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor Storm 15/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/40/15