Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 05/0001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 406 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 073
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 007/008-014/016-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/35