Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 05/0705Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/0434Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 269 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (07 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (08 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 071
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 009/012-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/10