Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 05/0709Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/0435Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/0023Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Feb 074
Predicted   06 Feb-08 Feb 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        05 Feb 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb  008/008-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/15/20