- Status Report
- Jan 27, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 February 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 670 km/s at 05/1806Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 05/0803Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 05/0738Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20565 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 073
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 007/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/40/25