Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 05/0056Z from Region 2494 (S12W04). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 517 km/s at 05/1225Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 05/0054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0412Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Feb, 07 Feb) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 120
Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 120/115/115
90 Day Mean 05 Feb 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 007/008-007/010-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb-08 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/40