Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 December 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/0719Z from Region 2898 (S24, L=236). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (06 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 05/1718Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/0031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1450Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1288 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Dec, 07 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (08 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 10/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 083
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 082/080/080
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 008/008-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/20