Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 5 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at05/0038Z from Region 2790 (S23E12). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (06 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 419 km/s at 05/1237Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 05/1339Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1825Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 768 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expectedto be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M 05/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 100
Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 095/092/092
90 Day Mean 05 Dec 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10